Market sources indicate that PT Freeport Indonesia has postponed the full resumption of operations at the Grasberg copper mine by one year.
Located in the central highlands of Papua, Indonesia, Grasberg is the world’s second-largest copper mine and the third-largest gold mine. In 2024, the mine produced 816,000 tonnes of copper, accounting for approximately 3–3.5% of global copper supply.
The root cause of this delay can be traced back to an incident in September 2025, when a large-scale wet material inflow occurred at the mine site. Approximately 800,000 metric tonnes of wet slurry flooded major underground workings, trapping seven workers — two of whom were later confirmed deceased. Freeport subsequently suspended all operations at the site.
Production Recovery Path: Phased Ramp-Up Pushed Back
FCX disclosed more detailed ramp-up projections during its April earnings call:
- H2 2026: Originally expected to reach 85% capacity; now forecast at just 65% (equivalent to an annual production reduction of approximately 136,000 tonnes).
- Early 2027: Originally expected full production; now forecast at only ~80% of capacity.
- Mid‑2027: Expected to reach ~90,000 tonnes/day (still well below full capacity).
- Late 2027: Expected to approach full operating rates.
- Early 2028: Now expected to achieve full production (a one‑year delay from previous guidance).
Key Bottlenecks to Ramp-Up
During the shutdown, persistent groundwater infiltration increased ore moisture levels by several percentage points above normal. The high‑moisture material has clogged material handling equipment, leading to a significant drop in loading efficiency. FCX has been forced to source specialized mining chute equipment from South Africa for retrofits, a process taking far longer than originally anticipated.
Additional Impact
FCX has also announced an approximately 18‑month postponement of its planned transition of Grasberg’s power source from coal to natural gas, further reflecting the severity of the operational recovery delays.
Post time: May-11-2026
