In 2026, against the backdrop of sustained high demand for base metals driven by the global green transition, intertwined with energy and logistics uncertainties caused by geopolitical conflicts, the European and global non-ferrous metals industries (including lead, zinc, and copper) are entering a critical period of “structural rupture,” marked by both growing pains and restructuring.
According to the latest core data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) and major mining giants, the current industry demonstrates three major characteristics:
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Supply and Demand Entering a Tight Balance with Mild Deficits: The global refined zinc market in 2026 has broken away from the surpluses of previous years, with the ILZSG forecasting a global supply deficit of approximately 19,000 tonnes for the full year. Driven strongly by renewable energy, power grid upgrades, and electric vehicles, the demand for non-ferrous metals is recovering moderately, directly supporting the upward volatility of international base metal prices.
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A “Double Squeeze” Within the Industrial Chain:
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The Mine Side (Tight Supply): European and global mines are facing bottlenecks such as declining ore grades in mature operations, geological safety constraints (e.g., operational restrictions at Sweden’s Garpenberg mine due to seismic activity), and prolonged environmental permit delays. Although mines like Tara in Ireland are slowly ramping up production, the overall supply of concentrates remains tight.
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The Smelting Side (Restricted Profitability): The shortage of ore has caused spot treatment charges (TCs) to plummet to historic lows. Compounded by normalized high energy costs in Europe triggered by geopolitical conflicts in regions like the Strait of Hormuz, smelters in Central and Western Europe are seeing average utilization rates capped at just 65%–75%. They are trapped in an inverted margin dilemma: “struggling to secure concentrate, and unprofitable even if smelted.” Only regions with green energy advantages, such as Northern Europe (e.g., the Odda smelter in Norway), are showcasing stellar utilization rates.
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A Time Lag Between Policy Ambition and Industrial Implementation: Although the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) has accelerated the approval of strategic projects and actively deployed secondary raw material recycling, a new mine in Europe still takes 10 to 15 years to progress from exploration to commercial output due to administrative and environmental hurdles. Consequently, this long-term policy relief cannot fundamentally resolve Europe’s heavy dependence on external processing and concentrate imports in the short term.
Post time: Jun-25-2026
