01 A Small Number with Big Implications
Analysts suggest that China could become a net exporter of refined zinc in 2026. While the figure may seem modest, its implications for the zinc market are significant. For over a decade, the market has assumed China is both the world’s largest producer and consumer of refined zinc—and one of the most important buyers internationally.
Now, that buyer may start selling overseas. Macquarie estimates China could achieve a net export of about 30,000 tonnes of refined zinc in 2026. In comparison, China had a net import of approximately 429,000 tonnes in 2024 and 210,000 tonnes in 2025. In the first four months of 2026, net imports fell to around 34,500 tonnes, a year-on-year drop of about 60%.
A net export of 30,000 tonnes is small relative to global annual consumption of about 14 million tonnes. But the market trades not just on volume but on direction. If China shifts from net importer to net exporter, the logic governing zinc prices, inventories, premiums, and smelting margins will need to be recalculated.
02 Why Now?
The supply-side change is the most direct factor. The ILZSG estimates global refined zinc production will grow by 1.4% to 13.99 million tonnes in 2026, with Chinese production expected to rise by 3%. In 2025, Chinese refined zinc production had already increased by 6.7%. The gradual release of new capacity is the fundamental reason for declining Chinese import demand.
Demand, however, is less robust. Zinc’s primary use is in galvanized steel, which is tied to construction, infrastructure, automobiles, and home appliances. While automotive and manufacturing sectors remain resilient, the real estate chain remains a drag, making it difficult for domestic consumption growth to keep pace with smelting expansion.
Overseas markets present a different picture. Smelting disruptions at facilities like Kazzinc and Cajamarquilla have tightened the availability of deliverable metal, pushing LME zinc prices to near four-year highs. In other words, China does not have an excess of zinc with no place to go; rather, overseas buyers are willing to pay higher prices for Chinese metal.
03 Not a Global Surplus, but a Domestic-International Divide
The most common misunderstanding in this zinc market shift is that China’s potential exports signal a global surplus. The reality is more complex. The ILZSG forecasts a small global deficit of about 19,000 tonnes in 2026, with demand of 14.00 million tonnes and production of 13.99 million tonnes.
In short, the global market is not notably loose; the surplus is mainly concentrated in China, while tightness is felt overseas. Chinese exports could relieve spot pressure in overseas markets and may push down LME premiums and regional surcharges, but they will not necessarily collapse zinc prices. As long as overseas smelting bottlenecks and low inventories persist, prices will retain some resilience.
04 Implications for the Industry Chain
First, the key variable for zinc prices will shift from “watching Chinese demand” to “watching the Chinese export window.” As long as the LME/SHFE price differential is large enough, traders will have an incentive to ship Chinese metal overseas. Once the differential narrows, export momentum will cool.
Second, overseas buyers may gain some temporary relief. For downstream users in Southeast Asia, South Asia, and parts of Europe, Chinese supply improves spot availability and lowers local premiums. However, for high-cost overseas smelters, this could bring new margin pressures.
Third, the competitive landscape for Chinese smelters is changing. Success now depends less on domestic sales volume and treatment charges and more on by-product returns, logistics costs, exchange rates, and offshore arbitrage capabilities. Smelters that can secure ore supplies, control costs, and establish export channels will benefit most from this divergence.
Looking deeper, zinc is not an isolated case. Similar signs have appeared in copper, aluminum, nickel, and lead: mining determines resource security, while smelting and processing capacities determine trade flows and pricing power. The potential net export of refined zinc from China is essentially another sign of the continued eastward shift in the center of gravity of global metal supply chains.
Post time: Jun-15-2026
