Many are puzzled: Iran is not a mandatory transit point for European logistics, so why is the impact so significant? The key lies in two major transmission paths, which are also central to understanding the varying performance of the four major logistics channels:
1. Energy Price Transmission
As a core member of OPEC, Iran accounts for over 12% of global oil exports. Any escalation in the region pushes up Brent and WTI crude prices. Both maritime and air freight are “fuel-dependent” industries, with fuel costs accounting for 35%-45% and 25%-35% of their respective operating costs. A rise in crude oil directly triggers an increase in Bunker Adjustment Factors (BAF) and Currency Adjustment Factors (CAF). Furthermore, even if the situation eases, these surcharges typically take 1-2 quarters to recede.
2. Corridor Risk Transmission
The Persian Gulf and the Red Sea handle 30% of the world’s oil and 20% of global container shipping. Even if sea freight diverts around the Cape of Good Hope, high risks in the Middle East force shipping lines and airlines to increase risk reserves and redundant capacity. These costs eventually translate into risk surcharges passed on to cargo owners. Simultaneously, carriers are permanently adjusting capacity on European lines, further exacerbating space shortages and creating a closed loop of “Risk → Cost → Capacity.”
In short, this impact is not a short-term fluctuation but a long-term reconstruction of the global cross-border logistics supply chain resilience. The performance of the four major channels is, in essence, a competition of their respective abilities to resist risk, adjust capacity, and control costs.
A Concrete Example for Context:
The link becomes clearer when looking at China: Iran is a core crude oil supplier to China, accounting for 13.4% of its total imports. Furthermore, 42.3% of China’s imported crude comes from the Middle East, with over 70% of that passing through the Strait of Hormuz. On a daily basis, crude oil passing through this strait accounts for 43.5% of China’s total imports.
This means that an escalation in Iran or a blockage in the Strait of Hormuz directly drives up both international and domestic oil prices. Through energy price transmission, this spikes fuel surcharges for sea and air freight, ultimately impacting the overall cost and lead times of European cross-border logistics.
Post time: Mar-12-2026
