Drivers Behind the Accelerated Critical Minerals Strategies in Central Asian Countri

The strategic pivot of Central Asian nations toward critical minerals is driven by a dual set of internal and external factors. Internally, it is rooted in their superior resource endowments and the practical needs of regional socio-economic development. Externally, it reflects the escalating strategic importance of Central Asian minerals in the context of global resource competition and the energy transition.

I. Internal Drivers: Resource Enrichment and Regional Development

1. Superior Resource Endowment and Production Capacity Central Asia holds a significant share of the world’s critical minerals, possessing both massive reserves and established production advantages.

• Reserve Scale: The region accounts for approximately 38.6% of global manganese, 30.1% of chromium, 20% of lead, 12.6% of zinc, 8.7% of titanium, 5.8% of aluminum, 5.3% of copper, 5.3% of cobalt, and 5.2% of molybdenum.

• Country Highlights: * Kazakhstan holds the world’s largest chromium reserves and top-ten zinc reserves. In April 2024, it discovered one of the world’s largest rare earth deposits, potentially ranking it third globally in exploration reserves.

  • Uzbekistan has discovered over 30 rare minerals (tungsten, lithium, graphite, etc.) and possesses uranium reserves sufficient for 50–60 years of extraction.

  • Tajikistan is the world’s second-largest supplier of antimony, drawing intense Western attention following Chinese export restrictions.

  • Kyrgyzstan excels in antimony, mercury, tin, and tungsten.

• Production Influence: Kazakhstan is the world’s largest uranium producer and second-largest chromium producer. Its rare earth exports reached 1,000 tonnes in 2023, a fourfold increase from 2020. Uzbekistan has become the world’s 5th largest uranium producer and a top-ten producer of rhenium and tellurium.

2. Strengthening Resource Sovereignty and Value Chain Ascension There is a growing trend of “Resource Nationalism” as Central Asian states seek to move beyond being “resource appendages” in the global value chain.

• Policy Shifts: Kazakhstan is systematically reviewing its international energy cooperation frameworks. In January 2025, President Tokayev called for the renegotiation of long-term Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) to better align with current national interests.

• Economic Sovereignty: Kyrgyzstan has tightened state control over rare earths through amendments to its Law on Subsoil. Experts note that Central Asian states view critical minerals as a lever for geo-economic transformation, converting resource rents into industrial upgrades.

3. Rising Regional Integration and Economic Stability The region remains one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.

• Growth Forecasts (2025): The World Bank projects growth for Kyrgyzstan (6.8%), Uzbekistan (5.9%), Tajikistan (7%), and Kazakhstan (4.5%).

• Diplomatic Rapprochement: Since the 2018 Consultative Meeting of Heads of State, border and resource conflicts have eased. In March 2025, the “Eternal Friendship Declaration” between Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan established a framework for joint resource management.

• Business Environment: Uzbekistan’s “one-stop-shop” service for investors has attracted over 1,000 European companies with investments totaling €30 billion as of April 2025.

II. External Drivers: Global Competition and Energy Transition

1. The Securitization of Minerals and Geostructural Value Critical minerals are now viewed through a national security lens, particularly for modern defense industries.

• Defense Lifelines: Minerals like gallium, germanium, and antimony are essential for drones, fighter jets, and submarines.

• Strategic “De-risking”: U.S. analysts suggest that cooperation with Central Asia serves a dual purpose: reducing dependence on China and facilitating the “de-Russification” of Central Asian economies.

• Specific Assets: Kazakhstan controls 25% of global beryllium production capacity, a vital material for aerospace and fighter jets due to its heat resistance and strength.

2. Supply Chain Reconfiguration and Great Power Competition Central Asia has become a key node in the Western strategy to reconstruct supply chains away from China and Russia.

• The “China+1″ Strategy: As the U.S. and EU experience “resource anxiety” over China’s dominance in rare earth refining, they are aggressively pursuing partnerships in Central Asia.

• U.S. Policy Momentum: Under the Trump administration (2025), critical minerals have been elevated to a core pillar of national security. This includes using the Defense Production Act and Trade Expansion Act (Section 232) to build a “China-free” supply network, while diplomatically encouraging countries like Ukraine to use resources to offset aid and integrating Central Asian assets into Western-aligned blocs.

3. The Global Energy Transition The shift from fossil fuels to renewables has made Central Asia indispensable.

• The “Energy De-Russification” Roadmap: The EU’s 2025 roadmap to cease Russian gas imports by 2027 has accelerated the demand for renewable energy components.

• Mineral-Intensive Green Tech: Achieving Paris Agreement goals requires a fourfold increase in mineral supply by 2040.

• Critical Inputs: Kazakhstan’s chromium is essential for wind turbines; its silicon and aluminum are foundational for solar panels. Rare earths found across the region (Neodymium, Dysprosium, etc.) are critical for high-performance permanent magnets in EV motors and wind generators. Furthermore, the region’s uranium is seeing renewed commercial interest as the world re-evaluates nuclear energy.